2006-07 Season Preview

Its time for my annual NFL off-season recap and season preview. There is a lot of stuff to cover this year, so I won’t be spending too much time on any one team.

The AFC.
The Bills are in trouble again this year, but they will not admit it. They still do not have a championship caliber quarterback on the roster. The battle between JP Losman and Kelly Holcomb is like the battle between Kmart and Target… both might be great values, but there are better options around the corner if you are willing to spend more. The Bills defense lost Lawyer Milloy and have done little to replace him. The team is hoping that everyone will be “talkin ‘bout Willis” all season long. The McGehee Show is the only way they will put points on the board this year.

The Jets are not looking much better than the Bills. At least Buffalo has a decent running back. The Jets managed to further confuse their QB situation this year, guaranteeing fans an opportunity to complain about any decision made. Chad Pennington is coming off multiple shoulder injuries. Brooks Bollinger still belongs on a college roster somewhere. And nobody can be certain of Patrick Ramsey’s condition after making his escape from Washington… he took a lot of physical and mental abuse during his sentence there, and it took a toll on him. No Curtis Martin this year… wait, he says he can play… team says he can’t… wait, now they say maybe….um, they grab Kevin Barlow, just in case?

The Patriots will be a playoff contender again. Period. No need to say more, but we will. The lost the best kicker in the game to free agency, but they will survive. They might lose Deion Branch because they refuse to pay him more, but they will survive. The defense is still solid and interchangeable, so they can always plug any holes that appear in the roster… and they just added Junior Seau to the mix (I will discuss that in detail later.) Their offense is always consistent, and now they have added rookie Lawrence Maroney to back up Corey Dillon… by week 3, I predict Dillon will be the backup, if not sooner. Maroney is my early pick for Rookie of the Year…. The guy is good!

The Dolphins are on the rise. They dealt with their QB problems by adding Daunte Cullpepper and Joey Harrington… Leo Clemon and Brock Berlin will also work in a pinch, but are not starting material. Culpepper looks a lot better than anyone thought he would after his massive knee surgery. The offensive line finally has a desire to protect the QB and give him time to deliver the ball. Chambers and McMichael are going to have huge numbers this season. And the defense is hungry, feeling disappointed at not being the #1 defense in the league last season. It’s a battle between the Patriots and the Dolphins for this division, and the edge will go to the team with the least amount of injuries at the end of the season.

The Ravens finally got themselves a QB when they added Steve McNair to the roster. He looks healthy enough to produce for them and will provide the stability they have lacked at the position since Trent Dilfer left (huh? Did I really just say that?) McNair is reunited with Derrick Mason, and Jamal Lewis is looking to erase the dismal memories of last season. The Ravens defense is still the most feared in the league, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulders this year.

The Bengals are all about Carson Palmer. He looks like he is not 100%. If his knee is not fully recovered, they have no chance at the playoffs. All their eggs are in one basket. They have great receivers and a good running game, but without their star QB it will not matter. Herman Edwards might be a great coach, but you can’t coach ‘Injury’…its just not in the playbook.

The Cleveland Browns… Take a look at the team’s official website, and their team calendar tells it all… only one item listed: College Football: Wisconsin vs. Bowling Green. It seems like they are already scouting for next year’s draft. I would have suggested the same, despite their improved defense.

The Steelers are the defending champions. And they pretty much stayed intact. Bettis retired and Randel-El has moved on, but they are still basically the same roster as last year. They just need to glue the helmet to Roethlisberger’s head, or remind him of the lesson that took them to the Superbowl last season: Ride the Bus. They are still the class of this division, and should clinch their playoff spot early.

With the #1 pick in the draft, the Houston Texans pick… Not Reggie Bush. If this season goes as expected, that will be the punchline. They did not even draft an offensive line to protect David Carr (poor guy… now that Ramsey has left Washington, Carr has NO competition for the ‘most battered QB’ category.) Instead they took Mario Williams, a capable but not great defensive end. Its time for a complete overhaul of the front office in Houston.

The Colts are the team to beat in the AFC. Sure they lost Edgerrin James, but Rhodes can get the job done. Marvin Harrison might be old, but its never a bad idea to throw the ball in his direction… odds are he will catch it. Peyton Manning will continue to add to his growing legend this year, as will their new kicker Adam Vinitieri. Dwight Freeney and Cato June are just plain scary for opposing teams to deal with. This should be the year the Colts get over the hump and make it to the Superbowl… but we have been saying that for 3 or 4 years now… If the Colts do not go to the Superbowl this year, expect the team to be completely dismantled at the end of the season.

Lets hope the Jaguars can overcome the injury bug this year. They have a dynamic, sharp looking, sleek looking, fast team. They plan to turn every game into a horse race towards the endzone. Unfortunately, that’s where the plan seems to end. They will be fun to watch, even if they don’t win.

The Titans picked up a pair of Rose Bowl rivals in the draft. They beefed up their RB situation with LenDale White, but have since had to deal with his injuries and attitude problems. I suspect that once the season is in swing, White will hit the field and work out just fine for them. They also added Vince Young, the new ‘human highlight reel.’ He promises to be everything Micheal Vick was not. Young has not been named the starter yet, but it should only take a few snaps before the decision is made. Otherwise the Tennessee fans will riot.

The Broncos are always in the hunt. They are solid, not great, at every position. You know they will find at least one RB who will produce over 1000 yards this season. All eyes are on Jay Cutler right now, who looks incredible during preseason play. Everyone is wondering if this marks the end of Jake Plummer in Denver. I still think Plummer can get the job done… we can’t blame him for dropped passes in the playoffs, although I certainly will not justify his own many mistakes. Plummer is not the sole reason Denver got beat by the Steelers last year. I am putting Denver into the AFC championship this season.

The Chiefs are all about LJ this year. The Larry Johnson phenomenon has started, at least in the eyes of the public. Lets hope the coaching staff has a better plan. Everyone gawks at Johnson’s numbers last year… ‘was on pace for a 2,400 yard season.. blah, blah, blah…” Now lets look at the facts: He took over the starting job late in the season, so he was a fresh healthy back going against bruised and battered defenses. Yeah, he did an amazing job, no doubt about it. And yes he will demolish the opposition this year. But his numbers WILL drop off this season. Its easier to get yards in weeks 9-16 than it is in weeks 1-9.

The Raiders are still the Raiders. Always unpredictable, always entertaining. Aaron Brooks will become a comedy of errors just like he was in New Orleans. But he just might get enough protection to produce a few points, then let the defense keep the other team’s points down. And when in doubt, THROW THE BALL TO RANDY MOSS. It works. Too bad this team is in the same division with 3 playoff caliber teams, otherwise they might have had a wildcard shot.

The Chargers will rock this year. Tomlinson will still be the best player in the game. Gates will continue to redefine the position of Tight End. Phillip Rivers… well… let’s wait and find out. He might not be that great, but he has enough support around him to make it all work.

The overall AFC picture: Colts vs Broncos in the AFC championship. Gee, I really went out on a limb there, eh?


The NFC.

NFC stands for No Fucking Clue. Which pretty much describes the NFC picture this season.

Lets start with the big story. Maybe you’ve heard about it. The Dallas Cowboys signed Mike Vanderjagt. Oh, you were waiting for the Terrell Owens story maybe? The TO situation has already gone into OT, and everyone is waiting for the explosion. The team slapped him with a $9500 fine yesterday for missing meetings. Put him on the field on game day, and he will find the end zone… with or without the ball. Its just a matter of Bledsoe staying on his feet long enough to throw it to Owens. But Vanderjagt will be the guy who wins games for Dallas. He is one of the most consistent kickers in history. He will turn short-punt situations into 3 pts for the team. And they lost three games by 3 pts or less last season. One field goal per game will turn a 9-7 team into a 12-4 team.

The Eagles do not have Terrell Owens anymore… Maybe you’ve heard about that? McNabb claims to be healthy this season. And the entire team is singing the chorus of ‘TO is gone, so our problems are solved.” Sorry boys, but Owens never sacked your QB or caused him to fumble. And Owens never allowed the opposing offense to get a first down in a critical situation to keep a scoring drive alive. Nope, the team had more problems than just Owens. But with Owens gone, maybe they can focus on them now.

The Giants are a contender. They are moving in the right direction. Eli Manning is turning out to be a pretty good QB… maybe its in his genes? Jeremy Shockey is having concussion problems, and I expect him to be injured off and on throughout the season. They might not make the playoffs, but they certainly have a good shot at it.

The Redskins are a mystery. They have to tools, they just can’t get them all working at once. Clinton Portis is hurt now, with an injury that could nag him all season long. Mark Brunell still seems to be ‘the guy’ in Gibbs Land, but if he gets hurt Todd Collins will have to take over… too bad the team opted not to sign Kerry Collins as a backup. The Redskins are a really good team on paper. The problem is getting them all healthy enough to be on the field at the same time.

Everyone got excited about the Bears last year. The team was under the radar and managed to bring Defensive football back to the NFL. Even without a real starting QB, they managed to produce enough points to win. They still have the same QB situation this year, but have added Brian ‘can’t keep a job or the ball’ Griese to the mix. So expect more of the same this year. They will need to win on defense. Thomas Jones is still a stud, but he needs an offensive line that can open some holes for him… and they just don’t have that.

The Detroit Lions are like that geeky kid on the block who you always let hang around, but you don’t really know why… he is never good at whatever it is your doing, is laughed at by everyone around, but he is always just happy to be there. The Detroit Lions are still a joke. They will continue to be a joke as long as Matt Millen is associated with the franchise. The owner refused to hear the chants of the fans when they held their ‘Millen Man March’ last year, and over 150,000 people marched through the streets demanding Millen’s removal. Lets shoot for 250,000 this year, and maybe they will hear it.

ATTENTION: Brett Favre is NOT retiring this season. Repeat: Brett Favre is not Retiring this season. Citizens of Green Bay, you may now leave the shelters and return to you homes. And no, they did not bother to improve the rest of the lineup much.

The Vikings will be the most improved team during the early portion of the season. Expect them to come out of the gate with some big wins. Brad Johnson is a damn good QB… understands that you don’t need highlight reels to win games, just yardage and points. Tarvaris Jackson is listed as their #4 QB, but he will be moved up to #2 soon, and will be the starter next season… he is really, really good! The team looks to fix its traditionally shakey running game by adding Chester Taylor to the roster. Overall they have a combination of power and consistency that reminds me of the old Riggens/Thiesman Redskins. The Vikings are easily a playoff contender this season, as long as their defense can hold the points down. Lets just keep them away from those famous Minnesota lakes for a while.

The Atlanta Falcons always show a lot of promise. Any year could be ‘the year’ for Michael Vick. And every year falls short. Warrick Dunn will pile up more yardage this year, but they lost the short-yardage power of TJ Duckett. The receiver lineup is confused… they have a lot of talented guys who just can’t seem to catch the ball. They have a really solid defense though, and that will keep them in contention. They will at least be a wildcard team, but I can’t promise more than that.

Its hard to not like the Panthers. They always look good. Their lineup is strong, they have exciting play, and they are a tough, gritty team. But they have chronic problems with the injury bug. But even if the team falls apart and can’t win games, at least we can hope for more drunken lesbian cheerleader bathroom brawls.

The Saints are a new team this year. I am not going to make fun of them (their owner is still at target for any rude remarks I choose to make, though.) Drew Brees is a playoff caliber QB. Reggie Bush will live up to all the hype and will help them win a few games. They still need to beef up the defense, particularly the secondary. But this team is starting to turn it around. Its just a matter of how their owner will find a way to screw it all up.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are turning into a pretty good looking football team again. Nothing spectacular there, but they work hard and get the job done. Chris Simms will finally get the chance to establish himself as a true NFL starter… if he fails, the team will need look towards Tim Rattay and Brad Gradkowski to turn it around, and that does not sound too promising. The Cadillac will again be almost impossible to stop, and will have Alstott to replace him for the ugly yards… it’s a powerful combo that will cause nightmares for defensive linemen.

There is a lot of buzz surrounding Arizona this year. Yeah, I will admit it: Their new stadium looks great. Too bad they have to put those ugly-ass uniforms on it. The team added Edgerrin James to finally establish a running game. That will win them a couple games this year. They still have Kurt Warner at QB… that will win a couple games for them and lose a couple games for them. Does anyone here really believe that Matt Leinart will sit on the bench as a backup all season long? I give it till week 4. But no matter what happens, it’s the Cardinals… they are still going to suck.

The Rams will be looking to score big with Stephen Jackson this year. He has all the tools, but not enough support. Tory Holt and Issac Bruce will still be a great combination, but Bruce is on the team more as a mentor than as a scoring machine… this will be his last season in the NFL. The ‘fastest show on turf’ needs to oil its gears a bit. Their defense needs a complete engine change. I love the Rams, but this team is going nowhere.

The 49ers are sad. Thank god for the Cartoon Network… at least the kids can be entertained on game day.

The Seahawks are the runaway favorites in the NFC. Shaun Alexander is still dominant… lets hope he can avoid the EA curse and can deal with his new popularity in the media. Matt Hasselbeck gets the job done, somehow. The Seattle defense is the most underrated squad in the league. This team is really, really solid. They just play in the wrong time-zone, so nobody sees it.

The overall NFC picture: No fucking clue. If I had to make a prediction, I would say… um…Seattle vs Atlanta in the NFC championship… I am really not comfortable with that prediction, because the NFC is wide open.

The rest of the football world
Something happened in the NFL last week that really pissed me off. Junior Seau retired. The Chargers signed him to a one-day deal and threw a huge ceremony for him. ESPN aired is whole retirement speech live, and he cried and ranted and carried on like a preacher at the Rapture. Then 24 hours later, he signed with the Patriots. That’s bullshit. The NFL needs a rule that requires players to sit out at least a full season if they retire. What Seau did was an insult to the Chargers and the Dolphins. I lost all respect for him.

This is the end of the Paul Tagliabue era. The commissioner is stepping down soon. It was a good run. He rolled with the punches, made his mistakes. But overall, he did a fine job. During his tenure, the league made huge improvements. New teams joined the league in Carolina, Jacksonville, and Houston. Cleveland moved to Baltimore, then Cleveland got a new team. The Rams moved, the Raiders moved several times. But the league stayed strong. The NFL added instant replay, then experimented for several years until they got it right. The 2 point conversion was added, and a whole new dynamic of the game was opened up. The league is stronger now than it was when he took over. Thanks for all the hard work over the years!